Dr Jennifer Mao：Stock Index Futures Series
The Singapore International Monetary Exchange (Simex) announced on 27 April 1998 that it would launch in August a stock index futures contract based on the Singapore stock market. In addition, it also plans to come up with two more stock index futures contracts, one on the Thai stock market, and the other on the Malaysian stock market. This means, very soon, small investors who have a view on the broad movements of these three markets will be able to put their money where their beliefs are.
Quite a number of people would still remember the collapse of Barings Group in the hands of rogue futures trader Nick Leeson. Some of them may associate words such as "speculation", "futures", "Leeson" more with gambling than with financial centres. While such a view may be difficult to change, we should quickly point out that a financial derivative that can be used for speculation can also be effective hedging tools.
To make a point, let me repeat a known fact about the German tennis player Steffi Graf. When Graf was in the final rounds of major tournaments, her father was known to bet against her. Some sports journalists speculated that the senior Graf was superstitious. But I believe that he was simply hedging. The winning from the bet would definitely dull the anxiety when Graf was on the verge of being defeated. Of course, the joy of victory would also be dampened by the loss on the bet. But then how often do we hear people who have survived a term insurance say: "I should not have bought the insurance!"
This series aims to enhance small investors' understanding of the stock index futures in general and the Simex MSCI Singapore Stock Index Futures contract in particular. Selected issues related to stock index futures will be discussed. They are outlined below and will appear in the following sequence:
*Speculating with Stock Index Futures
*Hedging Using Stock Index Futures
*Arbitrage Using Stock Index Futures
*MSCI Singapore Free Index
*The History and Development of Stock Index Futures
*Simex and Investor Protection
*Simex MSCI Singapore Stock Index Futures Contract
Stock Index Futures (SIF) contracts have been around for over 15 years. Institutional investors are familiar with such a product. The targeted readership of this series is the small investor.
We will illustrate in the next article how an investor with a view on the broad market movement can use SIF to profit from his belief if it turns out to be correct. The risks and advantages of SIF as a speculative instrument will be highlighted.
The third article of the series explains how a stock investor can use SIF to hedge against anticipated market corrections. We then present in the following article an actual example of program trading where handsome, riskless profit was made through arbitraging between the spot market (i.e. the stock portfolio) and the futures market using S&P500 SIF contracts. The example serves to demonstrate how arbitrage activities help to correct the mis-pricing in the market place.
Many investors must have many questions following after the Simex announcement. What is this index called MSCI Singapore Free Index? What stocks are included? How is it compiled? By whom? Why is it chosen over the far more familiar (at least to the local investors) Straits Times Industrial Index? Will it be susceptible to manipulation? The fifth article offers some answers.
Since the Kansas City Board of Trade introduced the first SIF in 1982, many SIF contracts have been traded on various exchanges with various degrees of success. Our sixth article will provide the historical development of this very innovative financial derivative. Hopefully we can draw on the experiences of other exchanges and make the Simex MSCI Singapore SIF a successful one.
Small investors will naturally be concerned about the measures taken by Simex to safeguard their interest against unfair practices. We will describe the risk management mechanisms of Simex in our second last article.
Finally, we will conclude the series with a thorough explanation of the contract specification of the Simex MSCI Singapore Stock Index Futures.
(The writer is Senior Lecturer of the Department of Finance and Accounting , NUS & a resource panelist of SPH's Chinese Newspapers.)
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新加坡国际金融交易所于4月27日宣布，将于今年8月推出一个以新加坡股市为基础的股价指数期货合约，也将在11月推出另外两个股价指数期货合约，一个以泰国股市为基础，另一个则以吉隆坡股市为基础，这意味着：对本国、泰国、马来西亚等股市的全盘走势具有看法的小投资人，很快地就会有以具体行动就其看法下注的机会。
记忆好的人在听到“股价指数期货”时，可能立刻想起了栽在日经指数期货手里、把霸菱数百年基业毁于一旦、如今还在樟宜监狱服刑的利森。“投机”、“期货”、“利森”都是容易引人反感的字词，所以，在读者还没有鄙视或不屑地发出“哼”的一声、拒绝读下去之前，让我们赶紧说在前头：能拿来“投机”的金融衍生工具，也都能用来避险。
也容我在此重复一个故事：网球女将格拉夫的父亲就是以“赌”来买“保险的，格拉夫的父亲在女儿参加重大比赛时，总是下注赌女儿会输，不懂期货原理的体育记者们都以为他迷信，认为赌女儿输球，女儿就会赢球。其实，这些记者们错了，对一个赌客来说，赌格拉夫是赢是输可能只是投机、一个发财梦，但对格拉夫的父亲而言，它却是一纸可以避免心脏病突发的保险单——当女儿在球赛中落败时，他可能从庄家那儿赢到的钱肯定有一定的慰抚作用，绝对可以帮助降低血压、松弛神经。当然，如果女儿赢了球赛，那高兴的程度也会被赔掉的赌金冲淡些许。
所以，“水可载舟，亦可覆舟”也适用于期货上：“期货可拿来投机，也可用来避险。”
我们将以一系列的文章帮助读者了解股价指数期货的应用。照理说，我们应该先解释股价指数的涵义、为什么不选择股民熟悉的海峡工商指数；再追溯股价指数期货的渊源与发展历史；接着介绍即将推出的指数期货的规格与有关的买卖规则等。
然后，我们应该说明投资人可以如何利用股价指数期货来投机、避险、套利；最后再谈谈其他的相关问题，例如新加坡股价指数期货的交易会不会使新加坡股市的波幅加大，甚至把新加坡变成东方的美国赌城拉斯维加等等。
但是，我们相信读者最关心、最急于知道的应该是如何买卖这个股价指数期货合约，所以，此股价指数期货系列将以下列的顺序与读者见面：
二、如何以股价指数期货投机
三、股票投资者如何以股价指数期货避险
四、如何以股价指数期货套利
五、摩根新加坡股价指数简介
六、股价指数期货的渊源与发展
七、新加坡国际金融交易所的风险管理机 制
八、总结：摩根新加坡指数期货合约
由于机构投资人对股价指数期货都已经很熟悉，本系列的对象是小投资人，系列之二以假想的例子说明如何利用股价指数期货投机。
系列之三则先以资金经理的角度来说明股价指数期货如何帮助一个大股票基金避险，再以小投资人的立场看股价指数期货的避险功能。
系列之四会引用一个1987年全球股市崩盘之前、以纽约股市的S&P500期货套利的例子。借着这个利用现货与期货之间暂时性价格失调来套利的例子，我们探讨股价指数期货价格与股价指数的关系。
系列之五将简单介绍“摩根史丹利资本国际新加坡自由流通股价指数”(MSCI Singapore Free Index，以下简称“摩根新加坡指数”）的成分股、编算方法、涵义、历史波动程度、与海峡工商指数的异同等等。
股价指数期货在欧美市场存在已久。系列之六追溯股价指数期货的渊源及发展史。这应该是本系列中与期货交易、应用较无直接关系的一节，但有助于读者期货知识的提升。
新加坡国际金融交易所在国际享有一定的盛誉，为什么？在此买卖期货的小投资人为何会被经纪商耍得团团转？他们的权益如何受到保障？这些都是系列之七的主题。
最后，就在摩根新加坡指数期货正式出台之前，我们以系列之八仔细地说明该期货合约的确切规格及交易规则，并以摩根台湾指数期货为例，解释每日出现在《商业时报》的讯息。
我们相信此一系列的文章可以帮助读者对新加坡国际金融交易所即将推出的三个股价指数期货有正确的了解，从而决定自己是否要利用这些期货来投机、避险，或用在任何其他合法的生财之道。
（作者是新加坡国立大学企业管理学院高级讲师与华文报咨询团成员）